Some of us think this hasn't happened before. The talking heads on the news keep blaming the invasion of Ukraine on the NATO question, like they're all in lockstep.
This is a fiction, reinforced by Putin, and no one is questioning this narrative.
Honestly, does Putin think that if Ukraine became a NATO member that NATO would invade his country unprovoked? I mean, that's the logic behind that narrative, right? That's the hole in that logic. No one thinks NATO is going to invade Russia, or anyone else unprovoked. It's never happened, and it's never going to happen. Therefore, Ukraine joining NATO is a drummed-up beef. The real issue is a butt-hurt Putin, upset that his ex-girlfriend is rejecting the Kievan Rus' culture for the West.
Added to that is the weak President Biden trigger. You notice, whenever the Russian's think we have a weak President, they invade someone or provoke us and threaten us with nukes? Here's some famous examples of weakness, and the result.
Kennedy: 1961, Bay of Pigs. Caused: Khrushchev tries to put missiles on Cuba, and Kennedy is forced to blockade Cuba. Eventually there was a backdoor agreement to remove US missiles from Turkey.
Result: US strategic posture weaker. Russian disaster, they're forced to be friends with Cuba, which ended up like being friends with someone who came to your party, and ended up sleeping on your couch and drinking your beer for the next 60 years.
Carter: 1979, Iranian Hostage Crisis. Weakness towards Iran from Carter reassured the Russians that they could invade Afghanistan and install a puppet government without serious repercussions.
Result: Other than loss of face here, this ended up actually being a foreign policy win for the US, but only due to Russian military incompetence. The Soviets ended up getting bogged down in Afghanistan, ruining their economy, and helped in bringing down the Soviet Union. A man named Reagan also had a lot to do with this.
Biden: 2020, Botched Afghanistan withdrawal. I guess irony can be pretty ironic, sometimes. Afghanistan is to superpowers like money printing is to Socialists. The end of the road. Putin is emboldened to invade Ukraine, and set a world record for short-timing Russian invasion disasters. This time there economy was ruined before the invasion really got going. You have to hand it to the Russians, they've really shortened the timeline here between the invasion, and the disaster. Why wait ten years, when you can combine the invasion with the economic disaster?
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